When it comes to a possible Iranian retaliatory strike against Israel for the attack on the Iranian Embassy in Damascus that killed 7 senior military officers on April 2, the U.S. security services have issued dire warnings. We are 10 days after the attack and the retaliation has not materialized. What is going on?
I do not have access to classified documents or senior military and intelligence officers willing to talk on condition of confidentiality. I have been a serious student of Iran’s military capabilities and actions for over a decade. Iran has the largest military in the Middle East. Here is a summary:
Iranian Armed Forces are the largest in the Middle East in terms of active troops. Iran’s military forces are made up of approximately 587,000 active-duty personnel plus 200,000 reserve and trained personnel that can be mobilized when needed, bringing the country’s military manpower to about 787,000 total personnel.
Israel has a formidable military machine:
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Israel has one of the world’s most powerful militaries, according to Al Jazeera, with a large arsenal of equipment including:
- Land power: 2,200 tanks and 530 artillery
- Airpower: 339 combat capable aircraft, including 196 F-16 jets, 83 F-15 jets, 30 F-35 jets, 142 helicopters, and 43 Apache attack helicopters
- Naval power: 5 submarines and 49 patrol and coastal combatants
Al Jazeera
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The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) also has armored personnel carriers, missiles, drones, and warships. The IDF has an annual military budget of over $20 billion and access to some of the most advanced U.S. military hardware. The U.S. has provided about $130 billion in military aid to Israel since its founding.
Israel also has an estimated nuclear arsenal of 200 warheads hidden at sea. I would compare its nuclear weapons capabilities to those of Pakistan.
Why hasn’t Iran made a move so far? My theory is that the first problem is the great political instability in Iran. The 80 million-plus Iranian people are unhappy about inflation, corruption, and the bad economic lives they suffer every day. A major new war might be “the tipping point” that leads to an uprising that topples the Mullahs and Iranian Revolutionary Guard from power.
The second problem that Iran has is its ally and major oil customer China. Disruptions of Iranian oil deliveries to China would drive the Chinese economy into a deep recession and create more great problems for the Chinese leadership.
The third problem that Iran faces now is Vladimir Putin. He is a man with great fondness for Jewish people. His personal fortune is in the hands of Jewish associates in Russia. Putin and President Netanyahu of Israel are close personal friends. It is alleged that after the October 7 attack, the first phone call Netanyahu made was not to President Biden. It was to Vladimir Putin.
How would Israel retaliate if Iran launched a major retaliatory attack? Conventional wisdom is that they would hit Iran’s nuclear facilities. I doubt this. Israel would need tactical nuclear weapons to destroy these well-designed and well-defended facilities. Israel military planners would take note of the great success that Ukraine has had attacking Russian oil and gas processing facilities. They would attack the four Iranian oil refining facilities below:
New facilities
| Refinery | Location | Estimated costs |
| Anahita refinery | Kermanshah Province | 1.3 billion euros |
| Hormoz refinery | Bandar Abbas | $4.3 billion |
| Caspian refinery | Gorgan, Golestan Province | $4 billion |
| Pars refinery | Shiraz | 800 million euros |
The reasoning would be that Iran’s economy would collapse with oil sales disrupted. Of course, such a move would take down the rest of the world economy.
We live in a world that is deeply interconnected, but dangerous.
Ohaman171 